Cipher Digital has contracted $11.4B in hyperscale leases and is building a real infrastructure business, but the equity is massively overvalued relative to the execution risk, dilution overhang, and capital structure complexity. The company has $3.4B in liabilities against $4.3B in assets (much of it construction-in-progress), with the 2031 convertible notes representing potential dilution of ~40% of shares outstanding. The Google warrant shortfall guarantee creates an open-ended contingent liability. Insiders are selling aggressively with zero purchases. Revenue won't meaningfully ramp until late 2026, and the company is burning $200M+ annually in operating cash while relying entirely on debt and equity issuance. At $9B market cap on ~$224M TTM revenue with massive GAAP losses, the stock prices in flawless execution of a multi-year construction program with no delays, no cost overruns, and no further dilution — an unrealistic assumption given the company's track record and the complexity of the pivot.