Score Breakdown
Trash.
NuScale Power is a speculative pre-revenue nuclear technology company trading at an absurd $3.7B market cap on $18M of trailing revenue, with 150%+ annual dilution, $300M+ quarterly cash burn, a collapsing revenue base (Fluor exit), an unproven commercial partner under securities fraud litigation (ENTRA1), and no signed PPAs. While the NRC-certified SMR technology has genuine long-term potential in a world hungry for clean baseload power, the current valuation prices in a near-certainty of successful commercialization that is years away and deeply uncertain. The stock is a momentum-driven retail/AI energy narrative trade disconnected from fundamentals. At $12.54/share with 320M+ shares outstanding (and growing rapidly), the market is capitalizing a company that generated $0.6M in quarterly revenue at over 200x trailing sales. Even in an optimistic scenario where TVA PPA is signed in 2027 and first modules deploy by 2031, the present value of those cash flows - discounted for execution risk, dilution, and FOAK cost uncertainty - suggests fair value well below current levels.
Negative cash flow. Can't value it.
Major red flags in SEC filings.
Shares melting fast.
Neutral.
Tight but ok.
Heavy bearish bets.
Below average.
🐻 Why Bears Hate It
The bear case centers on 'first-of-a-kind' (FOAK) technology risk and a lack of commercial traction. Despite having NRC approval, NuScale's flagship U.S. project (CFPP) was canceled due to cost increases of over 50%, and its current pipeline is heavily dependent on ENTRA1 Energy, a partner under intense legal scrutiny. Analysts at Citi and TD Cowen have highlighted that the company's valuation—trading at over 100x sales—is disconnected from its actual revenue generation, which remains negligible while cash burn remains high (over $400M operating outflow in 2025).
🔍 What's In The SEC Filings
NuScale is currently operating as an equity-printing machine to fund a $314M quarterly cash burn while facing significant litigation regarding its primary strategic partner's viability.
Aggressive and accelerating equity dilution through ATM programs.
“Subsequent to March 31, 2026, the Company sold 22,360,004 shares of Class A common stock for the gross and net proceeds of $216,779 and $213,528, respectively.”
The company established a $1B ATM program in Feb 2026 and immediately began dumping shares. The 'subsequent' sale of 22.3M shares suggests a desperate need for liquidity that was not fully captured in the Q1 period end figures.
Catastrophic burn rate relative to cash on hand.
“Net Cash Used in Operating Activities: [-314,678, -22,786]”
Operating cash outflows increased 1,280% YoY. With only $341M in cash and a burn of $314M in Q1, the company has roughly one quarter of runway remaining without the continuous issuance of new equity.
Complete collapse of revenue and disappearance of related party support.
“Revenue (2026 - $—; 2025 - $7,269 from related party): [565, 13,375]”
Total revenue fell by 95.7% year-over-year. Related party revenue from Fluor, which previously comprised over 50% of revenue, dropped to zero, signaling a withdrawal of support from their primary backer.
Active class action lawsuit alleging misrepresentation of primary commercial partner.
“The lawsuit... asserts claims under federal securities laws that the defendants made false and misleading statements... relating to ENTRA1’s experience, qualifications and capabilities.”
The Truedson Class Action directly attacks the credibility of the ENTRA1 partnership, which is the cornerstone of NuScale's commercialization strategy. If ENTRA1 is proven to be a hollow shell, the entire investment thesis evaporates.
Massive unaccrued milestone obligations to strategic partner.
“In 2025... we incurred an expense of $507,393 [for Milestone 1]... while the Company is subject to future payments in relation to Milestone Contribution 2 and Milestone Contribution 3, the criteria to record such liability has not been met yet.”
The company has already paid $507M for a 'non-binding' Milestone 1. Future milestones (35% and 50% tranches) are looming but not reflected on the balance sheet, creating a massive off-balance-sheet commitment to ENTRA1.
The company's valuation should be heavily discounted to its cash-per-share minus unaccrued commitments. Investors must treat this as a high-stakes lottery ticket on nuclear commercialization where the 'house' (ENTRA1) takes a 15-50% cut of every milestone before a single NPM is sold.
CFO Robert Ramsey Hamady adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement on March 31, 2026 (the last day of the quarter), which suggests management is preparing for personal share exits despite the company's precarious financial state.